Welcome back. Thanks for coming back and reading after our brief hiatus. I’ve been gassed up on football since the Lingerie Bowl was over and today Vegas posted the NFL’s total wins lines, so I’ve got the itch and I’m feeling inspired to write about it. A few of these lines just jump off the page for being retarded but there’s a few sneaky Vegas lines that look attractive but are a little sketchy when you break em down.
Cleveland Browns- 5 1/2- Sorry Jason, not yet. Be patient, the Browns will turn it around. Its just going to take some time and a much softer schedule. The Browns play in what is probably the toughest division in football, joining the Ravens, Bengals and Steelers in the AFC North. That’s 6 guaranteed losses just in divisional play. As well as that beast division, the Browns have to play the NFC South and AFC East. The Browns would be extremely fortunate to crawl out with 3 wins there, but I’d bet just 2(Bills, Bucs). And to round it out they have the Chiefs and Jagz as their non-divisional games. That’s a tough road for most teams, especially the Browns. I’ll be generous and say 5 wins. I’d like to see them succeed, but it won’t be this year. Take the under.
Green Bay Packers- 9 1/2- Aaron Rodgers. Nuff said. Outside of their division the Packers drew a very manageable schedule. They’ve got a hand full of tough match-ups with the Vikings and the Bears, the Patriots and Jets both on the road, and the NFC East’s Cowboys. But other than those few the Packers should breeze through their season. They should win a few of their tougher games even. I’ll put them at 11-5, possibly even a 12-4 mark. But all that matters is more than 9 wins and the Packers should definitely manage that. Take the Over.
New Orleans Saints- 10 1/2- This is the easiest bet here. The defending champion Saints have the 5th easiest schedule in the NFL. How is that even possible? They play in a mediocre division, where their only real competition is the Falcons. They also take on the NFC West and AFC North. The 49ers, Ravens, Steelers and Bengals are the only challengers there. There’s some good QB match-ups when Drew Brees meets Brett Favre and Tony Romo for the Saints’ non-divisional games. So doing a little bit of math we see that Saints may lose 4 games and the over is the bet to make here.
Indianapolis Colts- 11- The Colts’ have a few tough games, but as Peyton Manning has proven year in and year out, the Colts are to be favored in every game they play. There is a 5 week string in November where they play 4 non-divisional playoff teams(Bengals, @Patriots, Chargers, Cowboys) and then the Titans on the road. Caldwell’s Colts will surely drop a few games throughout the year, but 11 wins is a gimmie for the team who’s won 12 or more games for 4 straight seasons. I’m putting them at 12-4 with a random stumble along the way. But your money is safe, take the over.
Philadelphia Eagles- 8 1/2- No way. No way this team wins more than 8 games. The Eagles have to play the best two divisions in the NFC(NFC East and NFC North) and a pretty solid AFC South. They could only come out of that with only 3 or 4 wins. Their two non-divisional games are the Falcons and 49ers. This is a pretty hard schedule for a good team, and this Eagles squad is gonna have to show me something. I’ve got em being lucky to win 6 games. Unproven QB, unproven RB, average D. They do have an exciting receiving core that could add a spark. Kolb is gonna have to prove it before I believe this is a 9 win team. Take the under.
Minnesota Vikings- 8 1/2- I don’t know why these odds makers are scared to put big numbers by these perennial playoff teams. I think in this case, it may be because “Who knows if Favre is coming back???!!!??? Oh my God!!!!“. He’s coming back, we all know it. That being said, the Vikings have a difficult first half. Playing on the road against the Saints, Jets, Packers and Patriots, with home games sprinkled in against the Dolphins and Cowboys. Lets say just for argument’s sake they only win 2 of those games, if Brett Favre makes it through that stretch alive 9 wins should be achievable. If they split with the Bears, beat the Redskins, and Eagles, sweep the Lions, hammer the downward spiraling Cardinals, and stomp the Bills that’s 7 wins alone. So they should manage a couple more wins through the season. I’ve got em at 10, maybe 11 wins. I’ll admit this is largely based on Favre’s health, but he is the Iron Man. Take the over.
Kansas City Chiefs- 6 1/2- I wish I could explain it, but I like the Chiefs here. I don’t know why, but I believe they have been improving and can win a few games. Arrowhead Stadium is widely considered the biggest home field advantage in all of football, that and some good young talent is what’s got me going KC here. They can split with the Raiders and Broncos, beat the Browns Rams and Seahawks, there’s 5 wins. Then we’ve got win-able games hosting the 49ers, Cardinals and Jagz. This one may be a stretch but I like it. They only play 3 playoff teams. Take the over.
San Diego Chargers- 11- The Chargers play in what is probably the weakest NFL division which gives them the 3rd easiest schedule in the league. They don’t even face a true competitor until week 7. They are also one of the leagues best teams, with this soft of a schedule there is 14 win potential here. They lost LT, who cares? Jackson is suspended a few games, who cares? Easy bet, take the over.
New England Patriots- 9 1/2- This is one of those sketchy ones. 10 wins doesn’t seem like a lot for Brady and co. but when you look at the 6th most difficult schedule in football it comes into prospective. There’s questions about these guys falling off, being too old, not being able to hang with their quickly improving division, and when you throw in the Bengals, Vikings, Steelers, Ravens, Packers, Chargers and Colts it makes you realize how tough it’s going to be for this team to come out with more than 9 W’s. It very well could happen, but they’re gonna have to muscle up for this one, 2010 looks to be a great challenge for the Patriots. I’m not touching this one.
Pittsburgh Steelers- 8 1/2- We’ve got an average schedule here, a tough division and a few random big tickets mixed in. 9 wins doesn’t seem like much for the always dangerous Steelers, but remember Ben Rapistburger is suspended for the first 4 weeks, leaving a heavy load on their running attack and defense. They could go 1-3 through week 4 with their only sure bet being against the Bucs. This team gets banged up pretty frequently and certainly lost some respect among the tops in the NFL last year. I’m really curious to see how 2010 is going to go for these guys. We’ll see. Let me also add this, Ben “raped” a chick that looks just like him, his decision making is suspect at best.
Ben's accusser.
Do not bet the over on the chargers people. i’m not even saying that as a broncos fan, but with the one of their running game obviously even weaker than last year it’s gonna put more pressure on the passing game, and with jackson out, those few games he isn’t there might make a difference.
Chiefs, Jagz, Seahawks, Cards, Raiders, Rams, Pats, Titans, Texans, Broncos, Colts, Raiders, Chiefs, 49ers, Bengals, Broncos. someone show me 5 or more losses in that?
Go Chiefs. Both lines kinda suck, but they tons of talent and a pretty strong new coaching staff. Flowers is really the only reason I’m sweating them, but I honestly do think they’ll be an interesting team to follow.
I wouldn’t bet on the Charger’s run game necessarily being weaker, Mathews is kind of a freak. – on the flip side it’s hard to say that it’ll be any better.
Fuck the Eagles.
If Brett Favre announces his retirement Roger Goodell should ban him from the league just to make sure it sticks.
I am sick of the euphemistic way Lurie, Goddell, and Reid treat this situation. STOP IT! Stop saying, “we’re gonna help this guy turn his life around, decipher right from wrong, become an upstanding citizen that you would let dog-sit for you, leap buildings in a single bound.” And just say, “we don’t care what he has done, we need a backup/possible starter at QB, don’t you remember how good this guy was, we have to keep him, total football decision and we really don’t care if he changes or not, as long as yo don’t care, but if you do care then we will pretend to care.” It would be much more refreshing if they spoke from their heart.
Looks good, aside from one of your predictions. I really feel Kevin Kolb is going to be a valued starter for the Eagles. I’m not sure why on earth would higher management randomly give your franchise quarterback an extension, set a franchise record of points scored in a season, then trade him off to an inter-division rival. Seeing how that goes against all logic, there must be something with Kold. He did step in and produce solid play at times.
The focus wont be on the QB for their offense this year though, it’ll be their RB. Philly is notorious for relying heavily on their RB game either running or catching out of the backfield. Luckily for them, they got a clone of Westbrook in McCoy, who can do everything Westbrook did but much younger and not as many miles on the legs. He did avg 4.1 per carry last year and with no contention for the job this year, he will have a ton of opportunities to explode, especially with a new starting QB.
My point being they may have downgraded on the QB position, but their scheme is still in place with their offensive line. With all of that in mind and referencing to their schedule, they could easily reach their bye week at 5-2 only falling to the Packers and the Falcons, needing another 4 wins to cover. They could sweep the Redskins, win a late game against the Texans, with their later game against the Giants cause the Giants struggle later on, and they could win either of their last two games due to their opponents sitting their starters for the playoffs. It’ll be difficult for them to hit 9-7, but much more feasible than you think.