It's a Race Issue!

August 16, 2010

One pitch at a time, summer is drawing to a close and fall is elbowing its way through the door, ready to heap dead leaves upon our doorsteps and misery upon our non-playoff teams and their fans. Each passing day brings the post-season picture another step into focus. Some teams will slip into oblivion, and some will rise to the challenge. Some, like the Rangers, need only to work out the kinks and align their rotation, having practically clinched already. Still, no lead is completely safe. Just ask the 2007 Mets, who famously blew a 7 game lead with only 17 games left to play, missing a playoff spot on the final day of the season. Yes, the stretch run is upon us. We’re halfway through August, and before we jump feet-first into football, let’s take a moment to check in on the tight races around the majors.

AL EAST

Why the Yankees will win: The defending World Champs have got it all. They feature a deep rotation, a rounded lineup, a capable bullpen and a name-filled bench. This may be one of their last chances to win with the famous “Core 4” of Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, Andy Pettite and Mo Rivera. Jeter is a free agent this winter, and while it may be a stretch to imagine him walking, there is uncertainty around Pettite returning, as well as Posada’s ability to play for a whole season. They’re going to go for it all, and with a rabid fan base behind them anything is possible.

Why the Rays will win: Pitching, pitching, pitching. The Rays’ rotation is young and they are dealing. They have enough depth to make sure their recent injuries have no ill effect. Jeremy Hellickson looks like he’s here to stay, and he could be just the late-season boost they need. David Price is looming as the clear favorite to win the CY Young Award. Matt Garza threw a no-hitter, the first in team history. Their bullpen has appeared unhittable at times, with Benoit, Balfour and Wheeler forming a strong late-inning bridge to ultra-filthy closer Raphael Soriano, who has been a revelation. If Carl Crawford can stay hot, Carlos Pena can continue hitting bombs despite a diminutive batting average, and Evan Longoria can rediscover his 2009 stroke, they could score just enough to take the division.

Final Verdict: The Rays finish the season with 6 games against the Mariners and Orioles and then one final make-up game in Kansas City against a team that will already have taxis waiting outside the clubhouse to take them to the offseason. If the Rays can take 3 of 4 or sweep the Yankees in New York, then go on a tear at home during the last week, while the Yanks play the pesky Blue Jays and the vindictive Red Sox, they may be able to take it. But that’s not going to happen. The Rays simply will not score the runs needed to top the Big Applers, who have scored more runs than any other team. The Yankees pitching is nearly as good as the Rays and their hitting is vastly superior. They’re not going to look back. The Yankees will win the AL East.

AL CENTRAL

Why the Twins will win: Under the firm tutelage of Ron Gardenhire, the Twins are leading the majors in hitting while playing their inaugural season at beautiful Target Field. They have perennial stars Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, unexpected hero Delmon Young, and plenty of reliable veteran bats like Orlando Hudson and Jim Thome. Francisco Liriano has returned to his once-promising form, and Carl Pavano has come out of nowhere to rank among the AL leaders in wins and ERA. With Kevin Slowey fresh off a no-hit bid and youngster Brian Duensing turning heads, the presumed ace of the staff going into the season, Scott Baker, has been pushed into the background. That is a good problem to have, as the Twinkies are finding out.

Why the White Sox will win: Left for dead by the end of May, the White Sox never gave up and while the Tigers started strong then fizzled, the Sox find themselves within striking distance of first. With an offense featuring hitters like Paul Konerko, Carlos Quentin and Alex Rios, the White Sox can definitely put up some runs. The rotation top 3 of John Danks, Gavin Floyd and Mark Buerhle is formidable. Losing Jake Peavy hurt but they pulled off a deal for the young but well-traveled flamethrower Edwin Jackson. With their acceptable pitching and potentially potent offense they could prove to be a real thorn in the side of Minnesota.

Final Verdict: Hands down, the Twins take this division. It’s been a nice surprise to have Freddy Garcia pitching decently, but the Twins have better starting pitching, a better lineup and most importantly, a superior bullpen. The Twins lost their best two relievers for the entire season, with Joe Nathan and Pat Neshek going down, and they barely missed a beat, shrewdly scooping closer Matt Capps from the Nats. This team is locked in and determined, and the White Sox simply have too much dead weight on their active roster. A.J. Pierzynski, Mark Kotsay, Mark Teahan, Scott Linebrink. Bobby Jenks, Jayson Nix and Andruw Jones have all been stricken with a case of “Not-Getting-It-Done-itis.” It might be time for the Ozzies to cut bait, but they’ve lasted this long so they may be charmed. Count on seeing Minnesota in the 2010 post season.

AL WEST

Final Verdict: It’s not really necessary to comment on this. The Rangers will win the division handily.

NL EAST

Why the Braves will win: There are several reasons the Braves can start printing playoff tickets. Their rotation is simply superb. Jair Jurrjens has been dominant since returning from injury. Tim Hudson has been as good as he ever was in Oakland and Tommy Hanson has continued to show why he’s one of the top young pitchers in the game. Longtime innings-eater Derek Lowe is also in the mix and having a better season than last year. The Braves offense has been just enough to get it done, with Troy Glaus putting up solid production despite a poor average and poor fielding, Brian McCann having one of his trademark robust seasons at the plate and youngster Jason Heyward in the conversation for Rookie of the Year. Injuries are a part of the game, and the Braves have not been immune to the bug, losing top hitter Martin Prado as well as former face-of-the-franchise Larry Jones. They have not let these setbacks ruin their winning ways, and with a top bullpen anchored by the suddenly resurgent Billy Wagner, the Braves are planning to “Win one for the Gipper” during Bobby Cox’s farewell tour.

Why the Phillies will win: Playing in a packed house every night in front of energized fans will go a long way towards helping a team gain some swagger and some momentum, and anyone who has watched this version of the Phillies would admit that they have been lacking both. Perhaps getting back their two best hitters, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley will jumpstart the offense, but since they weren’t really hitting like they have in the past, it remains to be seen how they’ll perform upon returning. Raul Ibanez has aged rapidly, Shane Victorino has been exposed as a mediocre player, and Jayson Werth shook off a slow start to finally start producing in his walk year. But there’s reason to believe that the offense can start producing runs and if that happens, combined with the electric top of the rotation (featuring the peerless one, Roy Halladay, and the still-excellent Roy Oswalt) then the Braves are going to have to turn it up a notch to keep these guys off their backs.

Final Verdict: This could come down to the wire but the Atlanta Braves will be the NL East champs. The Phillies rotation is better at the top, but inconsistent “fashion model” Cole Hamels, trainwreck Joe Blanton and laughable Kyle Kendrick rank well below the Braves arms. In the bullpen, the Braves have a murderer’s row of strike-throwing bulldogs while the Phils have… uh… hmm… oh!… No… well, uh, Jose Contreras has been pretty ok as a mop-up guy/ fill-in jack of all trades! Combine this with an upcoming strenuous west coast road trip that the Braves have already completed and you’ve got yourself a second place team. Bobby Cox won 14 in a row, and he’ll win one more on the strength of his pitching, which will be good enough to hold off the Phil’s offense. One potential landmine is the annual “Why isn’t Billy Wagner Contributing When We Need Him?” Homecoming, however should this happen I’m sure Bobby has a back-up plan.

NL CENTRAL

Why the Reds will win: Dusty Baker has got his Red Stockings playing at a high level, with unexpected contributions from a vast array of players. This team has the grittiness needed to compete. Their rotation, initially seen as a strength, turned into a pumpkin with another bad season from Aaron Harang as well as a lengthy injury to last year’s surprise Edinson Volquez. This led to discoveries such as Mike Leake, who skipped the minor leagues, as well as Travis Wood who has been dominant in a handful of starts since his promotion, turning the rotation back into a strength, with the young guys joining up with Bronson Arroyo and Johnny Cueto. Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto are leading the offensive charge, and Scott Rolen has been a huge boost for the team both on the field and in the dugout. He should be firmly in the running for Comeback Player of the Year. Always a veteran’s manager, Baker has allowed Orlando Cabrera to take a leadership role in the infield, while getting production from his bench guys like Miguel Cairo and Lance Nix. The bullpen has used Nick Masset and the legendary Arthur Rhodes as an effective set-up team to top closer Francisco Cordero. The Reds are having a magical season, and it remains to be seen if that magic is going to run out.

Why the Cardinals will win: The Obvious Argument of the Year Award goes to this write up, for mentioning that Albert Pujols is the best hitter in the game and pointing out that he’s only just now beginning to really heat up. That’s bad news for everyone left on St. Louis’ schedule. Add to the mix two of the best pitchers in the game in Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright, and three of the top 25 players are on Tony LaRussa’s squad. Don’t forget Colorado import Matt Holliday as well as breakout youngster Colby Rasmus and hot rookie John Jay. The Redbirds are fresh off a sweep against the Reds in Cincinnati and they made an undercover coup by snatching Jake Westbrook from the Indians at the trade deadline to complement surprising Jaime Garcia and resurgent retread Jeff Suppan.

Final Verdict: Neither team has been that consistent thus far, but the Cardinals will be the ones to wear the NL Central crown this year. Having Carpenter and Wainwright pitching 40% of your remaining games goes a long way in calming nerves down the stretch. Dusty’s bunch plays hard but they can’t beat the Cardinals head-to-head and they can’t match the giant cogs in that lineup, named Pujols and Holliday. Tony has enough supporting cast this year even with super-utility man Felipe Lopez forced to play third base every day. Mike Leake is already showing some wear, and the much-ballyhooed Aroldis Chapman is still doing the Wild Thing in Louisville. The Cards have the pedigree and the players to take the division down and the Reds will be left to scramble for a wild card spot.

NL WEST

Why the Padres will win: The team has almost as good a winning percentage on the road as they do at home. The offense has been improved with the additions of Miguel Tejada and Ryan Ludwick, and Will Venable has shown some pop and some speed, although he joins a too-large portion of the roster in the sub .230 catergory. Adrian Gonzalez, still plugging away in a lineup with little protection, is having another good year, although a bit tame for him. Blame it on Petco’s spacious dimensions all you want, but the Padres pitching has been lights-out this season. The key to the Padres success has been their intense bullpen, holding leads for their just-good-enough rotation. They have shown the ability to win on the road, and it seems that no matter who they bring in from the 7^th inning on, they get the job done.

Why the Giants will win: Buster Posey is the best hitter the Giants have had since the Divine Mr. B. He is the real deal, and with Pat “the (incredibly streaky) Bat” Burrell suddenly contributing in the lineup, as well as the Duke of Swat himself Aubrey Huff, the Giants’ tepid offense is mildly better than we’re used to seeing. If Pablo Sandoval can remove himself from the side of the milk carton, Freddy Sanchez can get hot and Juan Uribe keeps putting up his unexpectedly good production both at the plate and in the field, Bruce Bochy’s squad could be in business. The strength of this team is the pitching of course, led by Tim Lincecum (having a subpar season – for him), Matt Cain, fire-baller Jonathan Sanchez and the $127 million man himself Barry Zito. Quite the impressive rotation, but can the offense keep up?

Final Verdict: This one should be close but the Padres will hold off the Giants and go wire to wire in the West. Neither offense is that impressive, and while the Giants have the potential to score more runs, I don’t think it will be enough to make a difference. Adding Ludwick to that lineup is going to pay off, as well as having another professional hitter (Tejada) in the mix. Even if Sandoval starts mashing, the divide between the bullpens is significant. Jeremy Affeldt, Guillermo Mota and company are decent but Luke Gregerson, Edward Mujica and Mike Adams have combined for 157.2 innings and issued only 28 total walks while striking out 177 (that’s better than a 6:1 K/BB ratio!). That’s not even mentioning closer Heath Bell, who is just plain unhittable. The rotation isn’t particularly impressive in SoCo, but it’s good enough to get the game to the pen. The Friars will represent the NL West in the playoffs this season.

AL Wild Card

The Rays will have no trouble locking this up. Sorry Boston fans, but I just don’t see them getting back into this race. Josh Beckett has not looked good since returning from injury, with the exception of one start, and the injuries to Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia have been devastating. Daisuke Matsuzaka has been a phenomenal bust, and John Lackey has been a grave disappointment. Without Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz, the Sawx would be way further back in the standings, but they won’t be moving up. The only impressive hitter has been Adrian Beltre, and the nightmare continues with J.D. Drew in the lineup, and big acquisition Victor Martinez doing nothing. At least Boston fans can look forward to a retooling of the team next season when some burdensome contracts will be off the books, a luxury that fans of other disappointing teams (the Mets or Cubs, for example) do not have. The Rays will face the better record between the Twins and Rangers in the first round of the playoffs.

NL Wild Card

If these predictions stand true, that leaves the Phillies, Giants and Reds fighting for the wild card spot. On the strength of their top 2 pitchers and their revitalized offense with Ryno and Chutley back in the fold, the Phillies will emerge as the NL wild card representative. They will face the San Diego Padres in the first round of the playoffs.